By: Kostika Kosova
Introduction:
Dubai, a bustling metropolis nestled in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has long been renowned for its ambitious development projects and vibrant economy. However, the growing specter of climate change has manifested itself in Dubai in the form of increasingly frequent, severe, and or extreme weather events. From scorching heatwaves to intense rainfall and flash floods, these phenomena not only pose immediate threats to the city’s residents and infrastructure but also raise profound legal questions regarding accountability, adaptation, and mitigation efforts under international law.
On Tuesday 16, 2024, the UAE experienced an absurd 10 inches of rainfall over a 24-hour period—the most ever since records began in 1949. In Dubai alone, 4 inches of rain fell over a 12-hour period on Tuesday—this is the amount of rain Dubai usually records over the course of an entire year. The damage was so catastrophic that 300 flights were canceled to and from Dubai International Airport, there were hoards of people stranded in various malls and on the streets, and there were at least 18 killed in the neighboring nation of Oman by flash floods. As pictures began to emerge in the coming hours and days, it was clear that most of the infrastructure of Dubai was inundated by the unprecedented deluge. But just what exactly caused this less than 1% likely rainfall event to occur? Currently, two theories have taken hold.
Potential Causes:
The first of these theories, and the one which most experts cite to, is that this extreme weather event was exacerbated by global warming. Esraa Alnaqbi, a senior forecaster at the UAE government’s National Centre of Meteorology (NCM), stated that low pressure systems in the atmosphere were intensified by warmer temperatures at ground level caused by human-led climate change. Friederike Otto, a climatologist and senior lecturer at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, commented on the event, stating, “When we talk about heavy rainfall, we need to talk about climate change.”
The second theory, on the other hand, attributes fault at another man-made factor: cloud seeding. Cloud seeding is a weather modification technique that improves a cloud’s ability to produce rain or snow by introducing tiny ice nuclei into certain types of subfreezing clouds. Cloud seeding has been used in the UAE since the 1990’s to battle water shortages in the region. Contrary to much speculation and accusation, however, the deputy director general of the NCM Omar Al Yazeedi, claimed that they “did not conduct any seeding operations during” the severe weather event. Former chief scientist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Ryan Mau further quelled the conjecture surrounding this topic clarifying that “you can’t create rain out of thin air per se and get 6 inches of water”—that rather, blame should be attributed to global warming which has caused extraordinarily warm water around Dubai.
Legal Implications of Extreme Weather Events:
One of the cornerstone agreements in the global fight against climate change is the Paris Agreement which had been adopted in 2015 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Both the UAE, of which Dubai is a part, and the United States are signatories to this landmark accord. And yet, whether signatory nations abide by their pledges or not, we must ask what the ramifications are when climate change fuels natural disasters.
This extreme weather event in Dubai raises several critical legal considerations. First, there’s the issue of liability and compensation for damages incurred by individuals, businesses, and public infrastructure. In the absence of clear legal frameworks addressing climate-related losses, determining responsibility for these damages can be complex. The 27th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) attempted to tackle this issue by concluding with a decision to establish and operationalize a loss and damage fund. The nearly 200 countries that were in attendance agreed to set up a fund which will be used towards costs being incurred from climate-fueled weather extremes or impacts. Nonetheless, the conference neglected to agree upon what should count as “loss and damage,” leaving a significant grey area in the reform attempt. With a recent report by 55 vulnerable countries estimating that their combined climate-linked losses over the last two decades totaled $525 billion, it is no surprise to see the current hesitancy in the international scene in accepting outright liability for such payments.
Moreover, even if there was such a fund how exactly would “fault” be calculated and apportioned? Climate change is referred to as the extreme droughts, wildfires, floods, tropical storms, and other disasters caused by the heating of the Earth through the burning of fossil fuels. While the US is a leading contributor of emissions, making up some 20% of the global total, they are not the sole perpetrators. In the US, torts damages can be collected under a theory of joint and several liability. This theory holds that when two or more parties are at fault, the plaintiff can collect from one who can then seek contribution from the other(s). There is obviously no such parallel in international law. Even if one idea would be to apportion damages by percentage of emissions, what happens when a nation simply refuses? While the Paris Agreement is described as “legally binding” by the UN, that did not stop the US from backing out entirely in 2020.
Furthermore, the practice of cloud seeding raises another interesting legal hypothetical. If cloud seeding did in fact have a significant enough effect so as to cause an extreme weather event, how would the international community allocate damages to a nation for a natural disaster? This question of liability seems to be a central issue for tackling climate change moving forward. The final decision of COP28 seemed to reflect this notion, in that their final decision on the “loss and damage” discussions brought up by COP27, explicitly stated that, “funding arrangements, including a fund, for responding to loss and damage are based on cooperation and facilitation and do not involve liability or compensation.”
International Cooperation and Adaptation Strategies:
Given the transboundary nature of climate change, effective response strategies require international cooperation and collaboration. Dubai’s experience with extreme weather events underscores the importance of sharing knowledge, resources, and best practices among countries facing similar challenges in the Gulf region and beyond. The UAE has demonstrated a commitment to climate action through initiatives such as the UAE Climate Change Plan 2050, which outlines ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing climate resilience.
In contrast, the US has experienced a more fragmented approach to climate policy with variations in priorities and strategies across different states and levels of government. While some states have adopted ambitious climate targets and invested in renewable energy, others have resisted regulatory measures and prioritized fossil fuel development. Despite the Biden administration’s recommitment to the Paris Agreement, which signaled a potential shift towards a more coherent and coordinated approach to climate action, the uncertainty of the coming election once again puts the issue of a uniform climate change policy in danger.
Conclusion:
As Dubai grapples with the impacts of climate change manifested in extreme weather events, the role of international law in shaping adaptation and mitigation efforts becomes increasingly pertinent. While differences in policy approaches between Dubai and the US clearly exist, both countries share a common imperative to address the urgent challenges posed by climate change through collective action and innovative solutions.
